000
FXUS64 KMOB 221101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS OCCLUDED LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA WITHIN 40
MILES OR SO FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY
LATEST PROGGS PREFERABLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
WEAKENING SFC LOW TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP MOVING OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWFA BY
LATE THIS MORNING. ALOFT MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND DAMPEN TODAY GENERALLY WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOW STATUS POSSIBLY HANGING TOUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GENERALLY STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MORNING FINALLY
DISSIPATES DURING THE DAY LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE ADVANCES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION MOISTENS SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT IS
JUST SHY OF BEING ABLE TO MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DUE
TO PREDOMINATELY WEST TO NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

.LONG TERM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROF MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES TREND
GRADUALLY COOLER TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BY
FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING...THEN MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. /29

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY TREND
GRADUALLY DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
/29

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. AS A RESULT HAVE
SHORTEN THE DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
MORNING...ENDING IT OVER MOBILE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND THE
OFFSHORE ZONES BY 900 AM. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /32

.AVIATION 12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINAL
SITES...GENERALLY FROM LOW STATUS AND LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD REFORM LATER TONIGHT AS AS WINDS
DECREASE NEAR THE SFC. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST OT WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. /32

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  50  68  48 /  20  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   67  52  68  51 /  30  10  05  05
DESTIN      68  55  68  54 /  40  10  05  05
EVERGREEN   62  48  67  45 /  40  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  61  50  66  43 /  40  10  05  05
CAMDEN      59  50  64  45 /  50  30  10  05
CRESTVIEW   67  49  71  43 /  40  10  05  05

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.